The new Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone may not ship as many units as expected due to what could be a lack of supply, but incisive analysis from Evercore Partners says this may benefit AAPL stock more than one would be inclined to believe.

According to Evercore analyst Robert Cihra, AAPL stock has traditionally gone up following rumors of an iPhone stock shortage. This pattern was observed for a three and a half year period ranging from March 11, 2009 to September 3, 2012, and in addition to the above observation, quarterly stock prices were also 1.2 times better in quarters following speculation of reduced iPad tablet computer supply.

The price of AAPL shares was even higher in quarters following reports of iPhone and iPad shortages – according to Cihra’s chart, stock prices went up 26 percent during the June ending quarter of 2010, when this last happened. AAPL stock, however, did not change in the September ending quarter of 2011 – prior to that, there was no word of constrained supply of either consumer electronics device.

Regarding iPhone 5 sales, Cihra expects 24 million units to be sold in the September-ending quarter 2012, an increase of 39 percent year-on-year. He did not specify how many units will be sold in the December-ending quarter, but hinted that Apple may report record sales at this point.

Overall, Evercore Partners expects Apple stock to be more bullish now, in the light of the recent rumors. From an original forecast of $750, Cihra has now set AAPL’s price target to $800.