There may be up to 200 million Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones sold in 2013, and 85 percent of them, or 170 million, are expected to be new iPhones, according to an analyst from Asymco.
The number-cruncher based his prediction on previous statements by Apple marketing head Philip Schiller at the ongoing Apple vs Samsung patent trial. According to Schiller, new generation iPhones had more or less sold at the same pace as all other previous generations put together.
Using simple mathematical analysis, Horace Dediu estimated the iPhone 3G’s sales to be four times as much as the first-generation iPhone and the iPhone 3GS’ sales to be 1.6 times greater than the iPhone and iPhone 3G’s combined sales.
This pattern continued with the iPhone 4, which sold more than the three previous iterations combined. As for the iPhone 4S, it is estimated that as long as it remains in the market, it should not have a problem outdoing the other four versions’ combined total sales.
So in a nutshell, if history repeats itself with the iPhone 4S, the iPhone 5 or new iPhone could sell more than 200 million units in its entire product cycle. This could even go as high as 250 million, but several variables may have to be considered, such as competing smartphones and Apple’s own marketing strategy.
It’s an interesting forecast, as is almost always the case from market research representatives. The new iPhone is expected to be unveiled on September 12 at a special Apple-hosted event.